Substantial variability exists in the interpretation of survey radiographs among equine veterinarians.

BACKGROUND: Radiographs are a common diagnostic tool utilised during pre-purchase examinations, yet differences surround their interpretation among equine veterinarians. OBJECTIVES: (1) To determine veterinarians' subjective impressions of a spectrum of radiographic abnormalities regarding suitability for purchase; (2) To determine how veterinarians' years in practice, primary discipline or board certification status influence their subjective impression of radiographic abnormalities, and (3) To determine how horses' discipline, current level of work (working at intended level vs. future prospect) and buyer intent (sell vs. retain ownership) influence veterinarians' subsequent recommendation. STUDY DESIGN: Worldwide electronic survey of veterinary professionals. METHODS: Four radiographic series of navicular bones, tarsi, and stifles, representing varying degrees of pathological change (normal, mild, moderate and marked) were presented. Respondents (n = 211) graded their level of concern from 1 (no concern) to 10 (very concerned) based on the radiographs and case scenarios presented. RESULTS: Overall, as the grade of pathological change increased for each anatomical location, so did the level of veterinarian concern, but a wide range of answers were submitted for all grades of pathology. Board certified practitioners had a higher level of concern over marked radiographic changes of the navicular bone for both western performance and English sport horses as well as prospect horses (mean = 7.2 vs. 6.1; P = 0.009; 95% CI for difference = [0.3, 2.0]). Board certified respondents had a lower level of concern over marked radiographic changes of the tarsus regardless of the performance status of the horse (mean = 7.1 vs. 8.0; P = 0.008; 95% CI for difference = [-1.5, -0.2]). Western performance horse practitioners had a lower level of concern over mild radiographic changes of the tarsus regardless of the performance status of the horse (mean = 3.3 vs. 4.2; P = 0.009; 95% CI for difference = [-1.6, -0.2]). MAIN LIMITATIONS: Only one example of each pathological grade per anatomical region was presented. CONCLUSIONS: On survey radiographs, the perceived clinical relevance of radiographic abnormalities among equine practitioners differs widely, making purchase recommendations highly variable.

Bayesian Methods for Information Borrowing in Basket Trials: An Overview.

Basket trials allow simultaneous evaluation of a single therapy across multiple cancer types or subtypes of the same cancer. Since the same treatment is tested across all baskets, it may be desirable to borrow information across them to improve the statistical precision and power in estimating and detecting the treatment effects in different baskets. We review recent developments in Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of basket trials, focusing on the mechanism of information borrowing. We explain the common components of these methods, such as a prior model for the treatment effects that embodies an assumption of exchangeability. We also discuss the distinct features of these methods that lead to different degrees of borrowing. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the impact of information borrowing on the operating characteristics of these methods and discuss its broader implications for drug development. Examples of basket trials are presented in both phase I and phase II settings.

Use of a novel shockwave trode results in better patient acceptance in awake canine patients treated for musculoskeletal disease.

Introduction: Extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ESWT) is used as a treatment option for several musculoskeletal pathologies in dogs. When performing ESWT using electrohydraulic devices, sedation is commonly recommended due to the noise and discomfort associated with the treatment. The aim of this study was to compare the tolerance of ESWT delivered by a standard or novel trode in awake canine patients with musculoskeletal disease. Materials and methods: This was a prospective, blinded clinical trial in which dogs with musculoskeletal disease received awake treatment with ESWT with a gradually increasing energy protocol using both standard and novel trodes with an electrohydraulic generator in a randomized fashion. Noise reactivity and tolerance to treatment as measured in number of shocks and energy level achieved were recorded. Results: Forty client-owned dogs with pathology affecting the hips, stifles, elbows, or shoulders were enrolled. Thirty-three dogs completed all three treatment sessions, three dogs completed two sessions, and four dogs completed one session. There was evidence of improved patient tolerability with the novel trode, based on an increased average number of shocks delivered (n ± SD = 848 ± 334 for novel trode; n ± SD = 767 ± 358 for standard trode; p = 0.0384) and higher average treatment energy level achieved (E ± SD = 6.5 ± 2.5 for novel trode; E ± SD = 5.3 ± 2.8 for standard trode; p = < 0.001). Decreased noise reactivity was found to be positively correlated with tolerability of shockwave treatment (energy level: p = 0.0168; number of shocks: p = 0.0097). Discussion: Administration of electrohydraulic ESWT is feasible in select awake patients using a gradually increasing energy protocol, and the tested novel shockwave trode is better tolerated than the standard trode. Further studies are required to determine the efficacy of the novel trode, and if gradually increasing energy protocols are clinically equivalent to current standard protocols that employ a consistent energy level.

Contrast administration via ultrasound-guided injection of the cranial tibial artery results in contrast enhancement of the soft tissues of the metatarsus in horses undergoing CT.

Delivery of mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) via intravascular techniques to treat diffuse and/or inaccessible soft tissue injuries has grown in popularity. The purpose of the current prospective, analytical pilot study was to utilize CT to validate this novel technique and provide additional evidence to support its use for injectate delivery to specific soft tissue structures. Of particular interest was the proximal suspensory ligament, which presents a challenging injection target. Six adult horses without lameness underwent CT of the distal hindlimbs. Scans were obtained prior to ultrasound-guided catheterization of the cranial tibial artery, in addition to early and delayed scans acquired following intra-arterial contrast administration. Region of interest analysis of the superficial and deep digital flexor tendons and suspensory ligament was used to assess contrast enhancement within these structures. Linear mixed models were used to determine statistical significance. Significant (P < 0.05) mean contrast enhancement was seen in all postinjection time points in all soft tissue structures of interest. This indicates that ultrasound-guided injection of the cranial tibial artery results in perfusion of injectate throughout the distal hind limb, including the major soft tissue structures of the metatarsus. This provides further support for this technique as a method of MSC delivery to multifocal or inaccessible injury of these structures, including the proximal suspensory ligament.

A Tutorial on Modern Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials.

Clinical trials continue to be the gold standard for evaluating new medical technologies. New advancements in modern computation power have led to increasing interest in Bayesian methods. Despite the multiple benefits of Bayesian approaches, application to clinical trials has been limited. Based on insights from the survey of clinical researchers in drug development conducted by the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group (DIA BSWG), insufficient knowledge of Bayesian approaches was ranked as the most important perceived barrier to implementing Bayesian methods. Results of the same survey indicate that clinical researchers may find the interpretation of results from a Bayesian analysis to be more useful than conventional interpretations. In this article, we illustrate key concepts tied to Bayesian methods, starting with familiar concepts widely used in clinical practice before advancing in complexity, and use practical illustrations from clinical development.

Biomechanical and histological changes secondary to aging in the human rotator cuff: A preliminary analysis.

The high failure rate of rotator cuff repair surgeries is positively correlated with age, yet the biomechanical changes to the tendons of the rotator cuff with age have not been described. As such, we sought to benchmark and characterize the biomechanical and histopathological properties with the accompanying gene expression of human rotator cuff tendons as a function of age and histopathological degeneration. All four rotator cuff tendons from fresh human cadaver shoulders underwent biomechanical, histopathological, and gene expression analyses. Following cadaver availability, samples were grouped into Younger (i.e., less than 36 years of age, n = 2 donors) and Aged (i.e., greater than 55 years of age, n = 3 donors) as a means of characterizing and quantifying the age-related changes exhibited by the tendons. Biomechanical testing and subsequent computational modeling techniques revealed both differences in properties between tendons and greater Young's moduli in the Younger tendons (supraspinatus 3.06x, infraspinatus 1.76x, subscapularis 1.25x, and teres minor 1.32x). Histopathological scoring using the semi-quantitative Bonar scoring scheme revealed a positive correlation with age across all tendons (r = 0.508, p < 0.001). These data contextualize the biomechanical and histopathological changes to tendons that occurs naturally with aging, highlighting the innate differences in biomechanical properties of all four rotator cuff tendons, as well as the difference in their degenerative trajectories. Additionally, the histopathological scoring revealed moderate signs of degeneration within the Younger supraspinatus tendons, suggesting tissue quality may decrease in this specific tendon in patients less than 40 years old, before clinical symptoms or tears.

The effect of femoral component valgus/varus angle on the mid-term efficacy of unicondylar knee arthroplasty.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of femoral component valgus/varus angle (FCVA) on the mid-term outcome after unicondylar knee arthroplasty. METHODS: Patients who underwent unicompartmental knee replacement in the Department of Bone and Joint Surgery, were retrospectively analyzed. According to the postoperative femoral prosthesis internal and external rotation angle, patients were divided into six groups the postoperative femoral prosthesis internal and external rotation angle: standard group, mildly abnormal group. The patients were followed up for 12 months, and complications were recorded during the follow-up period. The Range of motion (ROM), visual analog scale (VAS), and Knee society score (KSS) were compared between the six groups. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-four patients with 124 knees were included in this study. There were no statistical differences in age, gender, body mass index, preoperative ROM, or preoperative VAS, KSS-C, and KSS-F scores among the six groups. Comparison of postoperative outcomes and efficacy grades showed that: (1) the differences in ROM grades, as well as VAS, KSS-C, and KSS-F efficacy at 12 months postoperatively were statistically significant in all six groups by rank sum test; and patients in the normal group had better ROM grades and KSS-F grades than those in the mild and severe abnormality groups; (2) During the follow-up, no patient records had other serious complications such as periprosthetic infection, prosthetic loosening, periprosthetic fracture, and spacer dislocation. CONCLUSION: Controlling the femoral prosthetic internal rotation angle between 6° and 0° in unicompartmental knee replacements can lead to better mid-term outcomes for patients.

Hydrogen Sulfide Promotes Osteogenesis by Modulating Macrophage Polarization.

Macrophages, a versatile subset of immune cells, are essential for successful bone repair. Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) is a gasotransmitter associated with tissue development and repair. Emerging evidence demonstrates that H2S is involved in bone formation under physiology condition and bone regeneration under pathology condition. However, whether hydrogen sulfide mediates osteogenesis by influencing macrophages is unknown. Here, we aimed to investigate the effects of hydrogen sulfide on macrophage polarization and the subsequent impact on bone regeneration. In the present study, we found that the H2S-donor GYY4137 stimulated M0/M1 macrophages to express high level of CD-206 and IL-10 but decreased the levels of i-NOS and TNF-α in M1 macrophages. Furthermore, coculture of GYY4137-treated M0 macrophages with pro-osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells significantly increased the viability of the MC3T3-E1 cells. Importantly, the formation of mineralized particles in MC3T3-E1 cells was significantly promoted following coculture with IL-4-treated and GYY4137-treated M0 macrophages. Collectively, our study demonstrated that hydrogen sulfide increased macrophages M2 polarization and subsequently promoted bone regeneration.

Comparison of the pharmacokinetics of continuous and intermittent infusions of ampicillin-sulbactam in dogs with septic peritonitis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the time-course of ampicillin-sulbactam and percentage of time that its concentration is above a given MIC (T% > MIC) in dogs with septic peritonitis when delivered as either a continuous infusion (CI) or intermittent infusion (II). ANIMALS: 11 dogs with septic peritonitis. PROCEDURES: Dogs were randomized to receive ampicillin-sulbactam as either CI or II. Continuous infusions were delivered as a 50 mg/kg bolus IV followed by a rate of 0.1 mg/kg/min. Intermittent infusions were administered as 50 mg/kg IV q8h. Serum ampicillin-sulbactam concentrations were measured at hours 0, 1, 6, and every 12 hours after until patients were transitioned to an oral antimicrobial equivalent. All other care was at the discretion of the attending clinician. Statistical analysis was used to determine each patient's percentage of time T% > MIC for 4 MIC breakpoints (0.25, 1.25, 8, and 16 µg/mL). RESULTS: No dogs experienced adverse events related to ampicillin-sulbactam administration. Both CI and II maintained a T% > MIC of 100% of MIC 0.25 µg/mL and MIC 1.25 µg/mL. The CI group maintained a higher T% > MIC for MIC 8 µg/mL and MIC 16 µg/mL; however, these differences did not reach statistical significance (P = .15 and P = .12, respectively). CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study could not demonstrate that ampicillin-sulbactam CI maintains a greater T% > MIC in dogs with septic peritonitis than II; however, marginal differences were noted at higher antimicrobial breakpoints. While these data support the use of antimicrobial CI in septic and critically ill patients, additional prospective trials are needed to fully define the optimal doses and the associated clinical responses.

Modified Alendronate Mitigates Mechanical Degradation of the Rotator Cuff in an Osteoporotic Ovine Model.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis is an independent risk factor for failure after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. Since rerupture rates after rotator cuff repair are associated with decreased bone mineral density and bone microarchitecture, adaptations of biomechanical properties of the rotator cuff enthesis in patients with osteoporosis remain unclear. Additionally, the effects of osteogenic therapy carrier drugs used for the treatment of osteoporosis on rotator cuff structure and properties have not been previously documented. PURPOSE: To investigate the changes to soft tissue biomechanics and insertional structure secondary to osteoporosis with and without an osteogenic therapy carrier (ie, modified alendronate). STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. METHODS: Biomechanical, histopathological, and microcomputed tomography analyses were performed on 20 shoulders obtained from 10 osteoporotic sheep randomly allocated to modified bisphosphonate (ie, alendronate) or control (ie, osteoporotic without treatment) groups; 6 shoulders from healthy sheep were utilized for comparison purposes. RESULTS: Tendons from the control group exhibited a 57% decrease in undeformed Young modulus as compared with the healthy group (P = .010). Tendons from the modified bisphosphonate treatment group exhibited a 229% increase in initial Young modulus as compared with the control group (P = .010). Marked changes within the tendon insertional organization were noted in both the control and the modified bisphosphonate treatment group samples as evidenced by increased interdigitation of the bone-mineralized fibrocartilaginous junction. The control samples exhibited a markedly paucicellular insertion, whereas the modified bisphosphonate treated tendons exhibited a hypercellular insertional region as compared with the healthy group. Both groups exhibited significantly (P < .01) decreased bone quality underlying the infraspinatus insertion, as evidenced by all microcomputed tomography outcome parameters. CONCLUSION: This work illuminates changes to rotator cuff tendon secondary to osteoporosis. Specifically, it revealed decreased tendon modulus and altered insertional structure in the osteoporotic samples. Secondarily, these data revealed increases in tendon modulus accompanied by increased cellularity within the tendon insertion region after systemic modified bisphosphonate injections. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Bisphosphonate treatment may have a positive effect on the healing of the enthesis after rotator cuff repair.

Ultrasonographic Evaluation of the Suspensory Ligament in Quarter Horses Used for Cutting.

Ultrasound remains a mainstay in proximal suspensory ligament (PSL) evaluation. Despite recent improvements facilitating earlier diagnosis/treatment, needs exist for (1) characterization of normal ultrasonographic PSL cross-sectional area (CSA) in specific breeds/disciplines, (2) improved detection of early/subtle changes in the PSL, and (3) an understanding of suspensory ligament (SL) morphology change from work-related stress. The objectives of this study were to establish normal PSL CSA in Quarter Horses (QH) used for cutting via angle contrast ultrasonography, ultrasonographically monitor SL morphology as horses progress through training, and assess the impact of PSL disease on performance (Lifetime Earnings - $LTE). One hundred ten 2-year-old cutting horses had PSL ultrasound examination on all limbs, and examinations were repeated 2 years later on 51 remaining horses. PSL CSA at select locations was compared between time points and entire examinations subjectively graded by an equine radiologist. $LTE was obtained from the National Cutting Horse Association for each horse and analyzed by abnormality number, location, and development over time. A total of 267 PSL ultrasound examinations across both times points were measured and graded. Normal CSA was established by zone for forelimbs and hindlimbs. The prevalence of abnormal limbs increased between the 2-year-old and 4-year-old years, forelimb abnormalities were statistically more prevalent than hindlimb abnormalities at both time points, and osseous attachment abnormalities were statistically more prevalent than ligament abnormalities at both times points. No significant differences in PSL CSA change over time were seen in any group and there was no significant difference in $LTE among or between groups.

Tracking the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying coefficient state-space model.

The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary differential equations, but these deterministic equations are insufficient for modeling the observed case rates, which can vary due to local testing and case reporting policies and nonhomogeneous behavior among individuals. To assess the impact of population mobility on the spread of COVID-19, we have developed a novel Bayesian time-varying coefficient state-space model for infectious disease transmission. The foundation of this model is a time-varying coefficient compartment model to recapitulate the dynamics among susceptible, exposed, undetected infectious, detected infectious, undetected removed, hospitalized, detected recovered, and detected deceased individuals. The infectiousness and detection parameters are modeled to vary by time, and the infectiousness component in the model incorporates information on multiple sources of population mobility. Along with this compartment model, a multiplicative process model is introduced to allow for deviation from the deterministic dynamics. We apply this model to observed COVID-19 cases and deaths in several U.S. states and Colorado counties. We find that population mobility measures are highly correlated with transmission rates and can explain complicated temporal variation in infectiousness in these regions. Additionally, the inferred connections between mobility and epidemiological parameters, varying across locations, have revealed the heterogeneous effects of different policies on the dynamics of COVID-19.

m6 A demethylase ALKBH5 drives denervation-induced muscle atrophy by targeting HDAC4 to activate FoxO3 signalling.

BACKGROUND: Skeletal muscle atrophy is a common clinical manifestation of various neurotrauma and neurological diseases. In addition to the treatment of primary neuropathies, it is a clinical condition that should be investigated. FoxO3 activation is an indispensable mechanism in denervation-induced muscle atrophy; however, upstream factors that control FoxO3 expression and activity have not been fully elucidated. N6 -methyladenosine (m6 A) methylation is a novel mode of epitranscriptional gene regulation that affects several cellular processes. However, the biological significance of m6 A modification in FoxO3-dependent atrophy is unknown. METHODS: We performed gain-of-function and loss-of-function experiments and used denervation-induced muscle atrophy mouse model to evaluate the effects of m6 A modification on muscle mass control and FoxO3 activation. m6 A-sequencing and mass spectrometry analyses were used to establish whether histone deacetylase 4 (HDAC4) is a mediator of m6 A demethylase ALKBH5 regulation of FoxO3. A series of cellular and molecular biological experiments (western blot, immunoprecipitation, half-life assay, m6 A-MeRIP-qPCR, and luciferase reporter assays among others) were performed to investigate regulatory relationships among ALKBH5, HDAC4, and FoxO3. RESULTS: In skeletal muscles, denervation was associated with a 20.7-31.9% decrease in m6 A levels (P < 0.01) and a 35.6-115.2% increase in demethylase ALKBH5 protein levels (P < 0.05). Overexpressed ALKBH5 reduced m6 A levels, activated FoxO3 signalling, and induced excess loss in muscle wet weight (-10.3% for innervation and -11.4% for denervation, P < 0.05) as well as a decrease in myofibre cross-sectional areas (-35.8% for innervation and -33.3% for denervation, P < 0.05) during innervation and denervation. Specific deletion of Alkbh5 in the skeletal muscles prevented FoxO3 activation and protected mice from denervation-induced muscle atrophy, as evidenced by increased muscle mass (+16.0%, P < 0.05), size (+50.0%, P < 0.05) and MyHC expression (+32.6%, P < 0.05). Mechanistically, HDAC4 was established to be a crucial central mediator for ALKBH5 in enhancing FoxO3 signalling in denervated muscles. ALKBH5 demethylates and stabilizes Hdac4 mRNA. HDAC4 interacts with and deacetylates FoxO3, resulting in a significant increase in FoxO3 expression (+61.3-82.5%, P < 0.01) and activity (+51.6-122.0%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings elucidate on the roles and mechanisms of ALKBH5-mediated m6 A demethylation in the control of muscle mass during denervation and activation of FoxO3 signalling by targeting HDAC4. These results suggest that ALKBH5 is a potential therapeutic target for neurogenic muscle atrophy.

The Ci3+3 design for dual-agent combination dose-finding clinical trials.

We propose a rule-based statistical design for combination dose-finding trials with two agents. The Ci3 + 3 design is an extension of the i3 + 3 design with simple up-and-down decision rules comparing the observed toxicity rates and equivalence intervals that define the maximum tolerated dose combination. Ci3 + 3 consists of two stages to allow fast and efficient exploration of the dose-combination space. Statistical inference is restricted to a beta-binomial model for dose evaluation, and the entire design is built upon a set of fixed rules. We show via simulation studies that the Ci3 + 3 design exhibits similar and comparable operating characteristics to more complex designs utilizing model-based inferences. Implementation of Ci3 + 3 for practical trials is simple for the first stage, where the up-and-down decisions may be carried out using a decision table based on the preselected escalation path and i3 + 3. The second stage is not simpler than model-based designs, however, since it also requires computation of posterior probabilities based on a Bayesian model. We believe that the Ci3 + 3 design may provide an alternative choice to help simplify the design and conduct of combination dose-finding trials in practice.

Incorporating external data into the analysis of clinical trials via Bayesian additive regression trees.

Most clinical trials involve the comparison of a new treatment to a control arm (eg, the standard of care) and the estimation of a treatment effect. External data, including historical clinical trial data and real-world observational data, are commonly available for the control arm. With proper statistical adjustments, borrowing information from external data can potentially reduce the mean squared errors of treatment effect estimates and increase the power of detecting a meaningful treatment effect. In this article, we propose to use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) for incorporating external data into the analysis of clinical trials, with a specific goal of estimating the conditional or population average treatment effect. BART naturally adjusts for patient-level covariates and captures potentially heterogeneous treatment effects across different data sources, achieving flexible borrowing. Simulation studies demonstrate that BART maintains desirable and robust performance across a variety of scenarios and compares favorably to alternatives. We illustrate the proposed method with an acupuncture trial and a colorectal cancer trial.

Magnesium supplementation enhances mTOR signalling to facilitate myogenic differentiation and improve aged muscle performance.

Magnesium (Mg2+), as an essential mineral, supports and sustains the health and activity of the organs of the human body. Despite some clinical evidence on the association of Mg2+ deficiency with muscle regeneration dysfunction and sarcopenia in older-aged individuals, there is no consensus on the action mode and molecular mechanism by which Mg2+ influences aged muscle size and function. Here, we identified the appropriate Mg2+ environment that promotes the myogenic differentiation and myotube hypertrophy in both C2C12 myoblast and primary aged muscle stem cell (MuSC). Through animal experiments, we demonstrated that Mg2+ supplementation in aged mice significantly promotes muscle regeneration and conserves muscle mass and strength. Mechanistically, Mg2+ stimulation activated the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling, inducing the myogenic differentiation and protein synthesis, which consequently offers protections against the age-related decline in muscle regenerative potential and muscle mass. These findings collectively provide a promising therapeutic strategy for MuSC dysfunction and sarcopenia through Mg2+ supplementation in the elderly.

RoBoT: a robust Bayesian hypothesis testing method for basket trials.

A basket trial in oncology encompasses multiple "baskets" that simultaneously assess one treatment in multiple cancer types or subtypes. It is well-recognized that hierarchical modeling methods, which adaptively borrow strength across baskets, can improve over simple pooling and stratification. We propose a novel Bayesian method, RoBoT (Robust Bayesian Hypothesis Testing), for the data analysis and decision-making in phase II basket trials. In contrast to most existing methods that use posterior credible intervals to determine the efficacy of the new treatment, RoBoT builds upon a formal Bayesian hypothesis testing framework that leads to interpretable and robust inference. Specifically, we assume that the baskets belong to several latent subgroups, and within each subgroup, the treatment has similar probabilities of being more efficacious than controls, historical, or concurrent. The number of latent subgroups and subgroup memberships are inferred by the data through a Dirichlet process mixture model. Such model specification helps avoid type I error inflation caused by excessive shrinkage under typical hierarchical models. The operating characteristics of RoBoT are assessed through computer simulations and are compared with existing methods. Finally, we apply RoBoT to data from two recent phase II basket trials of imatinib and vemurafenib, respectively.

A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach to Dropout in Longitudinal Studies with Auxiliary Covariates.

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach to missing outcome data in longitudinal studies in the presence of auxiliary covariates. We consider a joint model for the full data response, missingness and auxiliary covariates. We include auxiliary covariates to "move" the missingness "closer" to missing at random (MAR). In particular, we specify a semiparametric Bayesian model for the observed data via Gaussian process priors and Bayesian additive regression trees. These model specifications allow us to capture non-linear and non-additive effects, in contrast to existing parametric methods. We then separately specify the conditional distribution of the missing data response given the observed data response, missingness and auxiliary covariates (i.e. the extrapolation distribution) using identifying restrictions. We introduce meaningful sensitivity parameters that allow for a simple sensitivity analysis. Informative priors on those sensitivity parameters can be elicited from subject-matter experts. We use Monte Carlo integration to compute the full data estimands. Performance of our approach is assessed using simulated datasets. Our methodology is motivated by, and applied to, data from a clinical trial on treatments for schizophrenia.

Semiparametric Bayesian inference for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a state-space model.

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and the effects of mitigation policies. We develop a novel Bayesian approach to such inference based on a probabilistic compartmental model using data of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. In particular, we consider a probabilistic extension of the classical susceptible-infectious-recovered model, which takes into account undocumented infections and allows the epidemiological parameters to vary over time. We estimate the disease transmission rate via a Gaussian process prior, which captures nonlinear changes over time without the need of specific parametric assumptions. We utilize a parallel-tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently sample from the highly correlated posterior space. Predictions for future observations are done by sampling from their posterior predictive distributions. Performance of the proposed approach is assessed using simulated datasets. Finally, our approach is applied to COVID-19 data from six states of the United States: Washington, New York, California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois. An R package BaySIR is made available at https://github.com/tianjianzhou/BaySIR for the public to conduct independent analysis or reproduce the results in this paper.

The design of an "H" joystick for closed reduction and its application in segmental and comminuted femoral shaft fractures: an innovative technique.

BACKGROUND: Closed reduction and locked intramedullary nailing has become a common surgical method in the treatment of femoral shaft fractures. Overlap and rotation displacements can usually be corrected through the use of an orthopedic traction table. However, lateral displacement and angulation persist. METHODS: In this paper, we describe a joystick that can be used in the closed reduction of a fracture. It can correct lateral displacement and angulation, and has the advantage of multi-direction reduction. The device described in this paper includes two parallel horizontal joysticks, one vertical main joystick and four assistant rods. Moreover, there are many specific spacing holes in the two parallel horizontal joysticks and a groove structure in the vertical main joystick. When the main "H" joystick is pressed, it can adjust lateral displacements and angulation because of the lever principle. The distance between parallel horizontal joysticks and assistant rods can be adjusted to the fracture position and body mass index of different patients. RESULTS: The study participants consisted of 11 males and 5 females with a mean age of 31.0 years. All participants had good closed reduction and achieved bony union without any complications such as infection, nerve injury, non-union, malunion, and limb length discrepancy. By using an "H" joystick, closed femoral shaft fracture reduction and locked intramedullary nailing becomes simpler and faster. CONCLUSION: Based on the use of this instrument, we can easily and conveniently obtain the correct reduction situation, which leads to better surgical results. This device can be applied in the reduction of clinical femoral fractures and gradually extended to the reduction of other fractures.